What moves currency prices:the 4 drivers.
What moves currency prices comes down to 4 drivers: interest rates, growth, risk mood and flows. On most days, 1 of them leads.
If you know which driver leads right now, you know what to watch.
The 4 drivers
Rates: money goes where it earns more. Growth: strong economies attract capital. Risk mood: in fear, money runs to safe havens. Flows: crowded positions have to unwind at some point.
Which one leads
Read the Macro Briefing. If every story is about central banks, rates lead. If every story is about a sell-off in stocks, risk mood leads.
Use it in real trading
The tool informs the decision, it never makes it. Here is how it plays out on real trading days.
A week of central bank speakers. You focus on rate spreads and the implied path.
Stocks drop 3% in a day. Rate stories take a back seat, and the yen gains.
Mistakes to avoid
- Using 1 driver for everything.
- Ignoring which driver leads right now.
- Forgetting flows.
What makes it different
Each driver has its tool in the terminal, and the Smart Bias shows which drivers support each verdict.
Questions
Which driver matters most?
Over time, rates. Day to day, it changes.
Can drivers conflict?
Yes, and then moves are choppy.
Where do I start?
With the Macro Briefing each morning.