What the Smart Bias isA weekly compass for the 8 major currencies.
Every Sunday, the Smart Bias says whether each of the 8 major currencies is strong or weak going into the week. It combines 5 layers of analysis into one call, so you can spend your energy on execution.
One question for every currency
Every Sunday, before the new trading week starts, the Smart Bias answers one question for each of the 8 major currencies: is it fundamentally and sentimentally strong or weak going into the week? The 8 are the US dollar, the euro, the British pound, the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc, and the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars.
It is put together by hand over the weekend, with the same process you will learn later to build your own bias.
Think of it as a compass. It tells you which way the fundamentals and the mood of the market point for each currency. The pair, the entry, the stop and the timing are still your decisions.
Built against the noise
Most traders get lost in noise. They jump from one idea to the next without a steady foundation, and contradicting headlines pull them in every direction. One headline makes the dollar look like a buy in the morning, another makes it look like a sell in the afternoon, and by Friday they have traded both views.
The Smart Bias was built to fix that. It gives you one view per currency, based on the full picture, before the week begins. You no longer need to analyse 10 macro indicators on your own or make sense of headlines that contradict each other, and a view decided in advance leaves less room for emotional trades.
5 layers in one call
The bias never rests on a single signal. It combines 5 layers, and each one answers its own questions, shown below. A currency can have strong data but a central bank about to cut, so only the combination tells you which way it really leans.
Positioning includes official data such as the weekly COT report, which the lesson on the pain trade explained. The trend of the price is checked as well, as a final layer that shows whether price agrees with the rest.
Is growth speeding up or slowing? Is inflation rising? Is the consumer strong? Is industry busy?
Are the big banks and macro analysts turning bullish or bearish, and why?
Are hedge funds and retail traders leaning in or out? What does the COT data show?
Hiking or cutting? Hawkish or dovish? Does the market believe the bank?
Risk-on or risk-off? Is the currency acting as a safe haven or a risk currency?
Already scored in the right direction
Raw data can be confusing, because a higher number is not always good news for a currency. The Smart Bias scores every input for what it means for the currency, in the right context, so you never have to reinterpret anything.
2 examples show how this works. If retail sentiment shows as bullish, retail traders are actually betting against the currency. Retail positioning is read the other way round, because the crowd is usually on the wrong side. And if unemployment shows as bullish, unemployment is low or falling, which is good for the economy.
| Input | Shown as | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Retail sentiment | Bullish | Retail traders are betting against the currency |
| Unemployment | Bullish | Unemployment is low or falling |
| Any input | Bearish | It weighs on the currency |
Clarity first, then execution
The result is clarity. You start the week with a clean, data-driven view of every major currency, and you can put your energy into executing it well.
The made-up example below shows the idea of a bias table: each row has a fundamental read, a research read and an overall bias, so strong, weak and mixed views stand out at a glance.
| Pair | Last | Daily | Fundamental | Research | Bias | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.0874 | +0.21% | Bullish | Bullish | Bullish | |
| GBP/USD | 1.2731 | −0.08% | Neutral | Bullish | Neutral | |
| USD/JPY | 151.42 | +0.34% | Bullish | Neutral | Bullish | |
| AUD/USD | 0.6588 | −0.27% | Bearish | Neutral | Bearish | |
| XAU/USD | 2,384.1 | +0.52% | Bullish | Bullish | Bullish |
In short
- The Smart Bias is a weekly outlook, ready every Sunday, that says whether each of the 8 major currencies is strong or weak going into the week.
- It combines 5 layers into one call: fundamentals, bank research, positioning, central bank policy, and sentiment and narrative.
- Every input is already scored for what it means for the currency, so you can read the call without reinterpreting any of it.
Key terms
- Smart Bias
- The weekly outlook for each major currency in Prime Terminal, built from growth, inflation, central banks, trend and positioning.
- Positioning
- How traders are already invested. When everyone is on the same side, there is no one left to push price further.
- Risk-on and risk-off
- Risk-on: investors feel confident and buy stocks and higher-yielding currencies. Risk-off: they get nervous and move into safe havens.
- Safe haven
- An asset investors buy when they are scared, such as the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc, gold or US government bonds.
- Retail trader
- A private individual trading their own money, as opposed to banks and funds.
- Noise
- Information that moves your attention but not the market, or moves the market only for minutes.