How to trade economicreleases with a plan.
Knowing how to trade news releases comes down to 1 rule: decide before the number, not after it. The move after a big release takes seconds. The thinking has to happen before.
This is the event routine we use for CPI, jobs data, central bank decisions and every other release that can move a market.
1. Know what is expected
In the Economic Calendar, every release shows the forecast and the previous value. The market reacts to the surprise, the gap between the actual number and the forecast, not to the number itself.
2. Prepare 3 scenarios
Open the Scenario Desk. For each big release it shows what usually happens if the number comes in above, in line or below expectations, and which markets react most. Write 1 line of your own plan next to each scenario.
3. Wait for the number
The first seconds after a release are the most chaotic: spreads widen and price jumps both ways. Let the number print, check it against your scenarios, and only act if it matches the scenario that fits your bias.
4. Check the reaction
In Realtime Headlines, the release headline gets the price reaction attached. If the market reacts the opposite way from the scenario, that is information too: something else was priced in.
Use it in real trading
The tool informs the decision, it never makes it. Here is how it plays out on real trading days.
Your EURUSD bias is bearish. CPI comes in hot, the dollar jumps. You wait for the first pullback and enter with the move, stop above the release high.
CPI matches the forecast. Your scenario says little reaction. You take no new trade and manage what you already have.
CPI is soft and the dollar falls, against your bias. Your plan said "no trade against the bias", so you stay out and review the idea later.
Mistakes to avoid
- Placing orders just before the release to "catch the move".
- Reacting to the number without knowing the forecast.
- Ignoring the revision of last month, which can change the whole picture.
What makes it different
Most calendars stop at forecast and actual. The Scenario Desk adds prepared outcomes for every major release, and the Realtime Headlines show how price actually reacted, so you learn from every release.
Questions
Should beginners trade news releases?
Only with a written plan and smaller size. Watching a few releases with scenarios first is a great way to learn.
Which releases matter most?
Central bank decisions, CPI, jobs data and GDP for the major currencies. The calendar marks the impact of every event.
Why did the market fall on good data?
Usually because even better data was already priced in. See our article on what "priced in" means.