Grade your thesisA 30-second scorecard before every trade.
A thesis you never look at again is just a diary entry. Give every thesis 4 scores before the trade, review them every day, and after a few weeks the patterns behind your best and worst trades show up.
From diary entry to data
A thesis you never look at again is just a diary entry. The useful version takes about 30 seconds before every trade: you give it 4 scores. Those scores turn each thesis into something you can sort and compare later.
Scoring also makes you look at the idea one more time before you commit. Rated honestly, it shows you which trades are backed by solid reasoning and which are impulses dressed up as a strategy.
The 4 scores
The first is conviction: how sure you are, from 1 to 5, based on your evidence. A 5 means everything lines up. The second is clarity: can you explain what is driving the move, and why now, in one sentence? If it takes a whole paragraph, it is not clear yet.
The third is the mood: are traders reaching for risk or running for safety, and is that with you or against you? The fourth is the event: is something coming soon that could move price, such as a data release or a central bank speech? That one is just a yes or a no.
How strong is your evidence? A 5 means everything lines up.
Can you name the driver and why now in one sentence?
Are traders reaching for risk or running for safety?
Is a data release or a central bank speech coming soon?
The AUD/CHF thesis, scored
Score the AUD/CHF thesis from the lesson on writing a thesis. Conviction: 4. Clarity: 5, because the driver fits in one sentence: weak growth in China hurts Australia. Mood: with you, because traders want safety. Event: yes, Chinese inflation data comes out this week.
A yes on the event score works as a warning. Price could move sharply soon, so you plan for that move before you enter instead of being caught by it.
Patterns you only see on paper
The scores pay off in the review. Go through your theses every day together with your watchlist, the short list of markets you follow. After a few weeks, patterns show up. Maybe your best trades all had a clarity of 5. Maybe every trade against the mood went wrong. Maybe you keep trading right before big events, and it keeps hurting you.
You would never see that from memory, but on paper it is obvious. The made-up log below shows how quickly a pattern stands out once the scores sit next to the results.
| Thesis | Conviction | Clarity | Mood | Event | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Short AUD/CHF | 4 | 5 | With | Yes | Win |
| Long EUR/USD | 3 | 2 | Against | No | Loss |
| Short USD/CAD | 4 | 5 | With | No | Win |
| Long GBP/JPY | 3 | 3 | Against | Yes | Loss |
| Short NZD/USD | 2 | 3 | With | Yes | Loss |
Consistency over prediction
That is how you build instinct: from honestly looking back at your own decisions, not just from screen time. You stop chasing the perfect trade and start running a process you can repeat and measure.
You will not always be right. Your thinking gets sharper with every scorecard, though, and your edge becomes something you can measure instead of something you hope for.
Trading rewards consistency more than prediction. Grade your next thesis tonight.
Mistakes to avoid
- Scoring after the trade. Once you know the result, every score bends towards it, and the review loses its value.
- Giving everything a 5. If conviction is always high, the score cannot separate your best ideas from your weakest.
In short
- Give every thesis 4 scores before the trade: conviction 1 to 5, clarity 1 to 5, mood with or against you, and event yes or no.
- Review your theses every day with your watchlist. After a few weeks, patterns show up that you would never see from memory.
- Trading rewards a process you can repeat and measure, so grade your next thesis tonight.
Questions
Should I skip trades with a low score?
Use the scores to find patterns first. Once your own reviews show that trades with a certain score keep going wrong, you have a reason, based on your own data, to set a minimum.
Key terms
- Trade thesis
- A short written reason for a trade: what you expect, why, what could confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
- Watchlist
- A short list of markets and ideas you are following. A reason to watch, not an obligation to trade.
- Risk-on and risk-off
- Risk-on: investors feel confident and buy stocks and higher-yielding currencies. Risk-off: they get nervous and move into safe havens.
- Catalyst
- An event that can set a move in motion, such as a data release, a central bank decision or a speech.